Weekly ERS (0–100)
A comparable escalation risk score by theater and conflict corridor, refreshed on a weekly window — not a tick-by-tick noise channel.
Weekly Escalation Risk Score
Map escalation risk before the headline cycle does.
Saker Index publishes a weekly Escalation Risk Score (ERS 0–100) from incentive-driven OSINT mapping of geopolitical theaters — built for energy traders, marine insurers, and macro desks.
Observe. Map. Act.
Product
Decision-relevant weekly escalation signals
Not another live headline feed. A structured weekly read of actor incentives, costly signals, and next-week scenarios.
Incentive maps
Actors, payoffs, and dominant strategies mapped from OSINT and physical signals — prioritizing costly moves over cheap talk.
Scenarios
Forward-looking paths for the next weekly window: what would raise or lower ERS, and what to watch for desks and underwriters.
Method snapshot
From OSINT to a weekly score
An auditable skeleton aligned to the published preprint.
Observe
Ingest open-source and physical signals; separate costly actions from cheap rhetoric in the weekly window.
Map
Map actor incentives and dominant strategies across the theater or corridor under review.
Act
Publish ERS 0–100 with scenario notes for decision desks — methodology citable via Zenodo DOI.
Reference
What the index is built around
Communication markers — not claims of proven forecast accuracy.
0–100
Escalation Risk Score scale
7d
Weekly observation window
DOI
Methodology preprint on Zenodo
OSINT
Incentive-driven signal mapping
Principles
Clinical, precise, decision-oriented
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Signals
Costly over cheap
Force posture, logistics, and capital commitments weigh more than statements and social noise.
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Incentives
Actors, not anecdotes
ERS tracks what actors can gain or lose in the window — not a narrative digest of every headline.
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Cadence
Weekly, versioned
A fixed weekly frame for desks that need a comparable read between live terminals and long reports.
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Limits
Starting point, not oracle
ERS is a structured input for human judgment. It does not replace due diligence, legal advice, or live monitoring.