ERS / Index
Illustrative weekly escalation scores
Sample Escalation Risk Scores (ERS 0–100) by theater and conflict corridor. Values below are illustrative for interface and product communication — not live operational readings.
| # | Theater / Corridor | ERS (0–100) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strait of Hormuz | 78 |
| 2 | Iran–Israel–US Triangle | 72 |
| 3 | Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb | 64 |
| 4 | Eastern Mediterranean | 58 |
| 5 | Taiwan Strait | 51 |
| 6 | South China Sea lanes | 47 |
| 7 | Black Sea / Crimea approaches | 44 |
| 8 | Korean Peninsula | 39 |
| 9 | Sahel corridor (illustrative) | 36 |
| 10 | Arctic Northern Sea Route | 28 |
Source: illustrative sample for product communication. ERS on a 0–100 scale. Do not use for operational or trading decisions. See the methodology and the Zenodo preprint. Live weekly briefs: Substack.